A six-year investigation conducted by the Observatory for Religious Freedom in Africa (ORFA) has revealed that terrorism-related violence claimed the lives of 79,323 people in Nigeria between 2020 and 2025, while 34,773 civilians were kidnapped during the same period.
The findings were presented to the public in Jos, Plateau State, on Tuesday through a report titled “Four Times Boko Haram? How the World Misreads Nigeria’s Violence.”
The report was accompanied by a statement signed by ORFA’s Senior Research Analyst, Frans Vierhout.
According to the study, Nigeria experienced an average of seven violent attacks every day over the six-year period, resulting in approximately 36 deaths daily.
“79,323 people were killed in Nigeria between 2020 and 2025, an average of seven attacks per day. More than 42,000 were innocent civilians,” the statement said.
ORFA, an organisation that tracks religious freedom, documents human rights abuses and provides research-based advocacy, said its investigators spent several years examining and comparing attack patterns across the country.
The organisation stated that the evidence collected challenges many widely held assumptions about the drivers of insecurity in Nigeria.
Its analysis showed that 42,033 of those killed were civilians, while the remaining 37,290 deaths involved members of security agencies and armed groups.
The report argues that Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), often viewed internationally as the main perpetrators of terrorism in Nigeria, accounted for only a small proportion of civilian deaths.
“Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) — the terror groups most blamed for violence — together carried out 12% of civilian killings: Boko Haram 8%, and ISWAP 4%,” the report stated.
Instead, the study found that armed groups classified as Fulani terror groups were responsible for the largest share of civilian killings.
It reported that these militias accounted for 44 per cent of all civilian deaths, a figure it described as four times higher than the combined civilian death toll attributed to Boko Haram and ISWAP.
According to the findings, Fulani terror groups were linked to the deaths of 18,577 civilians, while Boko Haram and ISWAP together were responsible for 4,941 civilian fatalities.
ORFA emphasised that its classification should not be interpreted as an indictment of the wider Fulani ethnic group.
“ORFA is careful to distinguish between armed Fulani terror groups and the Fulani people as a whole, the vast majority of whom are not involved in violence,” the report stated.
Vierhout said the research consistently pointed to a dominant pattern in the country’s violence.
“The data makes this very difficult to ignore… We look at how killing occurs. Who they target, where they operate, the seasonal fluctuations of killings — and the evidence points strongly in one direction.
“Violence linked to Fulani militias is the dominant force behind Nigeria’s death toll. The Western preoccupation with Boko Haram is, at best, misleading.
“Nigeria is incubating a terror network which the outside world has yet to acknowledge,” he stated.
The report also documented widespread abductions, revealing that 34,773 civilians were kidnapped during the review period.
According to the findings, armed groups identified as Fulani terror groups were responsible for 43 per cent of the abductions, while unidentified armed groups accounted for 49 per cent.
The investigation further highlighted what it described as a religious dimension to the violence.
It found that 28,551 Christians were killed during the six-year period compared to 13,224 Muslims.
The report stated that, when analysed relative to population distribution in affected states, Christians were killed at a rate 4.4 times higher than Muslims.
ORFA also examined the treatment of kidnap victims and identified what it described as a pattern it termed “Captivity by Creed.”
According to the report, survivor testimonies indicated that Muslim captives generally experienced lower ransom demands and less severe treatment, while Christian hostages were subjected to higher ransom payments, prolonged negotiations, greater violence and a higher likelihood of execution.
The report also alleged that Christian women faced increased risks of sexual violence while in captivity.
It recorded 15,932 Christian abduction victims and 15,272 Muslim victims during the period under review.
However, ORFA maintained that the conditions experienced by Christian captives were generally harsher.
“The field research reveals that a lesser value is assigned to a Christian life,” said Steven Kefas, Senior Research Analyst and author of Captivity by Creed: The Religious Sorting System Nobody Talks About.
“From the moment of capture, Muslim and Christian hostages enter different realities. It is not about individual captors. It is a system – consistent across multiple states, armed groups, and multiple years of survivor testimony,” Kefas said.
The report further revealed that approximately 75 per cent of civilian deaths occurred during coordinated attacks on farming communities, often involving abductions, sexual violence and the destruction of homes and property.
ORFA said its database captured up to 60 separate variables for every recorded incident, drawing information from five independent sources, including field investigations, local partners, academic research, media and NGO reports, as well as verified social media content.
The organisation concluded by urging policymakers and the international community to recognise the religious dimensions of violence in Nigeria when designing security and humanitarian responses.
“They urge a recognition that without a full accounting of the religious dimensions of violence in Nigeria, attempts to find solutions remain incomplete,” the statement concluded.
