· Atiku, Obi may step down
· Underground permutations ongoing
· As lawyers still divided over eligibility
As the plot to unseat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu thickens, the possibility of a likely Jonathan/Kwankwaso ticket has sent shivers down the spine of the ruling APC and the president, FATAI JIMOH writes.
With fewer than two years remaining until the 2027 presidential election, the Nigerian electorate has been jolted out of apparent complacency — and it appears that both the ruling All Progressives Congress and President Tinubu are equally startled by reports of a potential Goodluck Ebele Jonathan–Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso ticket.
This development follows a disclosure by a close associate of the former president, who revealed that plans to draft him as the People’s Democratic Party’s candidate are already well advanced, and that he has agreed to run, with the aim of tackling Nigeria’s deepening poverty, hardship, and the widespread suffering that has afflicted its citizens in recent years.
According to sources, a campaign is underway to persuade former President Jonathan to return and reposition Nigeria, spearheaded by influential leaders and elders who believe he stabilised the country and its economy during his tenure. They contend that this initiative aims to rescue the nation and restore its economy, prompting key figures in the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, to urge Jonathan to consider challenging Tinubu in the 2027 elections.
Particularly, northern political elites fear that a second term for President Tinubu would lead to significant hardship for the region. They insist that there is no other Southerner trustworthy enough to govern for a single four-year term, other than Jonathan, who is constitutionally barred from serving more than one term. “Nigerians can attest to Tinubu’s marginalisation of the north in appointments and development projects. While the South deserves a second term for balance after Buhari’s eight years, any other Southerner succeeding Tinubu would likely seek to serve eight years themselves, making only Jonathan a viable candidate, as he cannot exceed a single term and can enable a return to northern leadership in 2031.”
“The Buhari and Tinubu administrations have led Nigerians to regret denying Jonathan a second term, and this has galvanised support for his return to complete the good work he started. As the African saying goes, ‘you do not appreciate the good of a wife until you marry another.’ Once consultations are complete and Jonathan enters the race, the All Progressives Congress, APC, will realise their error.”
The source added that Jonathan has discreetly met with influential leaders inside and outside the PDP to garner support for the 2027 presidential bid. Notably, he met last weekend with former military ruler General Ibrahim Babangida at his Hilltop Mansion in Minna, Niger State, where he shared his intentions for a one-term run in 2027. Although the source did not disclose Babangida’s response, he expressed optimism about the plan being favourably received in the north.
Furthermore, the source indicated, “The Tinubu camp and the APC are well aware of the formidable challenge posed by Jonathan, especially considering the prospect of him pairing with Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, making the threat undeniable.”
As the PDP seeks to rally Jonathan for the race, the African Democratic Congress, ADC-led coalition is also deliberating whether to support Atiku once more or endorse a Southern candidate like Peter Obi or former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi, both of whom have committed to serving only one term if elected. However, doubts regarding the enforceability of such pledges have led some within the coalition to view Jonathan as a more reliable one-term option.
Obi, who defected from the PDP in 2022, has been lobbied by several PDP stakeholders for a return to lead the party in 2027. Resistance remains, particularly among Northern PDP powerbrokers, who argue that Obi’s one-term promise to the ADC lacks legal validity and could be disregarded should he take office.
For these figures, sources say Jonathan presents a safer bet. As a former president, he is already constitutionally barred from seeking more than one additional term. His potential candidacy is seen as a tactical compromise that could satisfy Southern demands for power shift in 2027, while keeping hopes alive for a Northern return to the presidency in 2031. To this end, some persons within the coalition have stated that with proper and adequate consultations, the possibility of Atiku and Obi stepping down for a Jonathan candidacy is very high and likely, further increasing the chances of a comeback for the Otueke-born former president.
But while these permutations continue underground, there is division in the polity on his eligibility, following a 2018 Constitutional amendment that bars those sworn-in twice in the past from running for presidency or governorship.
The sections of the Constitution that address the issue of presidents and governors being sworn in more than twice are Sections 137(3) and 182(3). These sections state that a person who was sworn in to complete the term of another person as President or Governor shall not be elected to such office for more than a single term
*Section 137(3) applies to the President and states: “A person, who was sworn in to complete the term for which another person was elected as President, shall not be elected to such office for more than a single term.”
*Section 182(3) applies to Governors and states: “A person, who was sworn in to complete the term for which another person was elected as Governor, shall not be elected to such office for more than a single term.”
The amendment, now known as the Fourth Alteration Act, came into effect on June 8, 2018, when signed into law by former President Muhammadu Buhari. Currently, legal opinions are divided on the matter. Some argue that Jonathan is ineligible to contest any presidential election since he completed the unexpired term of the late President Umar Yar’Adua and served another term until 2015. Others contend that the new provisions do not apply to Jonathan, as his tenure began before the law was enacted.
In 2022, a Federal High Court in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State ruled that the amendment did not bar Jonathan from running. Despite reports that he would contest, and some supporters acquiring the APC’s N100 million nomination forms, he ultimately chose not to enter the race. On May 27, 2022, Justice Isa Hamma Dashen upheld the view supporting Jonathan’s eligibility in a ruling regarding a suit filed by Andy Solomon and Idibiye Abraham, who claimed membership in the APC.
The defendants included Jonathan, the APC, and the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC. Solomon and Abraham argued that according to Section 137(1)(b) and (3) of the constitution, Jonathan was ineligible to seek the presidency due to having previously taken an oath of office twice. However, Justice Dashen found that Section 137(3) did not retroactively prevent Jonathan from contesting the 2023 election, noting that his oath on May 6, 2010, following Yar’Adua’s death, was in accordance with constitutional provisions and not because he had contested and won an election. He clarified that the 2007 general election produced Yar’Adua as president, not Jonathan, and that Section 137(3), effective from June 8, 2018, could not be applied retroactively unless explicitly stated otherwise by the legislature.
