…Marketers groan as refinery captures 62% of domestic PMS market, crashes price
By Charles Ebi
Nigeria has recorded a significant drop in fuel imports as domestic refining output rose sharply in recent months, signalling progress in the country’s drive toward energy self-sufficiency.
Data released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority ,NMDPRA, in its January fact sheet showed that the total daily supply of Premium Motor Spirit ,PMS, also known as petrol, declined to 64.9 million litres in January. This represents a drop from the 74.2 million litres recorded in December 2025.
Despite the overall decline in supply, local refining accounted for the larger portion of the volume. According to the regulator, domestic production contributed 40.1 million litres per day, representing 57.5% of total supply.
This marks a notable rise from 17.1 million litres per day in October 2025, reflecting a 57% increase in refining capacity over three months. Meanwhile, imports by oil marketers and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited ,NNPCL, dropped to 25.8 million litres daily in January, highlighting reduced reliance on foreign supply.
The NMDPRA attributed the growth in local supply to improved output from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, noting that domestic PMS supply rose from 32 million litres per day in December to 40.1 million litres in January.
The Dangote refinery accounted for most of the increase, raising its production by about 25% month-on-month. However, output remains below its 75 million litres per day domestic target.
The facility operated at an average capacity utilisation rate of 61.27%, with a peak of 67.69%, indicating ongoing efforts to scale up operations as Nigeria pushes for greater fuel independence.
On February 11, 2026, the refinery announced that it had reached its full nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. Reacting to the development, billionaire investor Femi Otedola described the milestone as transformative for Nigeria’s energy sector.
He expressed optimism that sustained local refining could reduce pressure on foreign exchange, strengthen the Naira, and improve investor confidence.
Otedola also projected that further investment of $12 billion could expand production capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day, particularly in petrochemicals.
The report showed that Nigeria’s state-owned refineries are yet to resume meaningful operations. The Port Harcourt refinery is currently shut down, although diesel evacuation from previously produced stock averaged 0.376 million litres per day.
The Warri and Kaduna refineries also remain non-operational. Meanwhile, the domestic supply of Automotive Gas Oil (diesel) averaged 10.9 million litres per day, suggesting gradual gains in broader refining output.
Analysts say the increase in local refining comes at a crucial time for Nigeria’s economy, as fuel imports have historically consumed billions of dollars in foreign exchange and contributed to inflationary pressures, especially amid subsidy reforms.
With domestic PMS now accounting for 57% of supply, experts believe the development could ease demand for foreign currency and potentially position Nigeria as a net exporter of refined products in the future.
However, they cautioned that sustaining the gains will depend on steady crude supply, infrastructure improvements, rehabilitation of public refineries, and policy consistency under President Bola Tinubu’s administration.
As import volumes decline, retail fuel prices have largely stabilised, offering some relief to consumers and transport operators.
Industry stakeholders are now looking ahead to subsequent monthly data to assess whether the upward trend in domestic refining will continue.
AljazirahNigeria had earlier reported that the Dangote Refinery recently slashed its gantry petrol of price for marketers by N27 per litre amid private depot competition The new rate of N772.50 would encourage marketers to lift more fuel, helping the refinery maintain competitive pricing and boost throughput
The refinery promised to meet domestic fuel demand and ease fuel costs for consumers.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market has entered a new phase after Dangote Refinery supplied 62% of the country’s Premium Motor Spirit in January 2026, overtaking fuel importers for the first time.
Fresh data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority shows that total average daily PMS supply stood at 64.9 million litres in January.
Of that volume, domestic refineries accounted for 40.1 million litres per day, while imports by Oil Marketing Companies and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited contributed 24.8 million litres daily.
The shift marks a historic turning point. For over a year, imports consistently dominated supply. January 2026 is the first time domestic production has surpassed foreign inflows in the 13-month reporting window from January 2025 to January 2026.
Regulatory data links the surge directly to improved output from the Dangote facility.
The refinery increased PMS supply from 32 million litres per day in December 2025 to 40.1 million litres in January 2026, representing a 25% month-on-month jump.
The refinery’s Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, David Bird, has stated that the plant can supply more than 50 million litres of petrol daily, suggesting further room for growth.
Commissioned as the world’s largest single-train refinery with a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the Dangote facility began petrol production in September 2024. Since then, it has gradually ramped up operations in pursuit of full stability.
The latest milestone comes at a crucial time for Nigeria, which historically imported virtually all its petrol before the Dangote refinery commenced PMS production. Throughout much of 2025, domestic supply remained modest.
Between January and May 2025, total daily supply ranged from 43.7 million to 57.1 million litres, with local refineries contributing between 18 and 25 million litres per day. Imports filled the gap, peaking at 38.6 million litres daily in May.
September 2025 recorded the lowest total supply at 39.7 million litres per day, prompting the regulator to grant additional import licences.
By November 2025, imports surged to 52.1 million litres daily, the highest level in the dataset, while domestic output lagged at 19.5 million litres.
The President of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, had openly criticised the issuance of import licences at the time, accusing former NMDPRA chief, Farouk Ahmed of undermining local refining efforts.
Momentum shifted in December 2025 when domestic supply doubled to 32 million litres per day, pushing total supply to 74.2 million litres daily. Imports eased slightly to 42.2 million litres. January’s figures cemented that progress.
With domestic production now covering 62% of demand, import reliance has dropped to 38% of the market.
The growing dominance of local refining could translate into significant foreign exchange savings, reduced exposure to global price volatility, and improved product availability.
The Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria has maintained that its members, including Dangote, can meet national demand if provided adequate crude feedstock.
At peak consumption of roughly 54 million litres per day, industry players argue the supply gap is narrowing rapidly.
For fuel importers, however, the numbers point to a shrinking share of a market they once controlled. For Nigeria, the data signals a decisive step toward fuel self-sufficiency and a restructuring of the downstream petroleum landscape.
Imported Premium Motor Spirit ,PMS, emerged cheaper than petrol produced by the Dangote Refinery, according to the latest pricing data released by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria ,MEMAN.
Figures published by MEMAN last week, showed that the average landing cost of imported petrol stood at N721.80 per litre, significantly lower than the N799 per litre gantry price offered by the Dangote Refinery.
This represented a price difference of about N77.2 per litre, with imports holding the advantage.
