Tech entrepreneur Elon Musk has claimed that mortality rates across parts of Africa declined after the United States significantly reduced foreign aid funding, arguing that the cuts ended programmes he believes contributed to political instability on the continent.
Musk made the remarks on Tuesday while responding to criticism of initiatives backed by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which supported major reductions in funding for the US Agency for International Development (USAID).
The reductions dramatically scaled back American humanitarian assistance. According to Refugees International, US humanitarian funding dropped from approximately $14 billion in 2024 to $3.7 billion in 2025, with the organisation describing the dismantling of USAID as the most visible sign of a wider decline in global humanitarian support.
The Center for Global Development also reported that USAID spending fell by about 58 per cent in 2025 compared with the previous year.
Despite the funding cuts, humanitarian agencies and medical experts have repeatedly warned that the reductions could trigger devastating consequences in vulnerable countries.
A study published in The Lancet in July 2025 estimated that the decline in aid could contribute to more than 14 million deaths worldwide by 2030, including over 4.5 million children.
Similarly, New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof, citing projections from the Center for Global Development, wrote that more than 1.6 million people could die within a year if US-backed HIV prevention and treatment programmes were discontinued.
Rejecting those concerns, Musk shared mortality data on X that he said showed no measurable increase in deaths across several African countries after the aid reductions.
“Deaths in Africa DECREASED after USAID funding was cut, because they’re no longer able to push for violent revolution to install leftist regimes!” Musk wrote while reposting an analysis based largely on South African mortality statistics.
The data included a graph tracking weekly deaths in South Africa between January 2023 and May 2026, highlighting the period following reductions to USAID and the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).
According to the analysis, observed excess deaths remained close to zero and fell below projections made before the funding cuts.
The accompanying report also referenced previous academic research, including a 2019 study that found only limited statistical evidence linking higher levels of foreign aid to improvements in life expectancy or reductions in mortality in developing countries.
Musk has consistently defended the decision to reduce foreign aid, arguing that the cuts were necessary to eliminate waste, corruption and the misuse of taxpayer funds.
He further maintained that some previous USAID programmes had been used to support political activities, claiming they encouraged violent uprisings aimed at installing left-leaning governments in certain countries.
According to Musk, ending such funding has helped remove a source of instability rather than worsening humanitarian conditions.
