Aljazirah Octopus Predicts Outcome Of Anambra Guber

Anambra-MAP

•60,000 security personnel deployed

•PVC collection records all-time high

•Massive voter turnout expected

•As Amupitan faces acid test

As Anambra State goes to the polls today to elect its next governor, the Deputy Inspector-General of Police, Benjamin Okolo, has assumed supervisory command over all police personnel deployed for the exercise.

Approximately 60,000 security operatives from various agenciesincluding the Police, Nigerian Army, Navy, Department of State Services (DSS), and the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) have been mobilised to maintain peace and secure the states 5,720 polling units.

State Commissioner of Police, Abayomi Shogunle, has underscored the importance of coordination among the agencies, urging intelligence sharing and joint patrols to ensure a seamless operation. Residents have been assured of their safety and encouraged to exercise their civic rights without fear.

Sixteen candidates from various political parties are contesting the election, in which 2,802,790 registered voters are expected to participate. The incumbent governor, Professor Chukwuma Charles Soludo of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, is seeking re-election.

His challengers are: Prince Nicholas Ukachukwu of All Progressives Congress, APC, Mr Paul Chukwuma of Young Progressives Party, YPP, Mr John Nwosu of African Democratic Congress, ADC, and Dr George Moghalu of Labour Party, LP.

Others are Oti Echezona of Allied Peoples Movement, APM, Ms. Chioma Ifemeludike of African Action Congress, AAC, Jeff Nweke of Action Alliance, AA, Charles Onyeze of Accord Party, AP, Geoff Onyejegbu of New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP, Jude Ezenwafor of Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and Chukwududem Nweke of Action Peoples Party, APP.

Also in the race are Jerry Okeke of Boot Party, BP, Ndidi Olieh of National Rescue Movement, NRM, Martin Ugwoji of Zenith Labour Party, ZLP, and Vincent Chukwurah of Social Democratic Party, SDP.

The Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, and security agencies have both declared their readiness. At a stakeholders meeting earlier in the week, INEC Chairman Professor Joash Amupitan reaffirmed the Commissions commitment to ensuring that every vote counts and that the will of the people prevails.

With a register of 2,802,790 eligible voters,

Anambra has the numbers to powerfully shape its own destiny, he said. Amupitan added that uncollected Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs) would be secured in the Central Bank of Nigeria until after the election.

A Test for INEC and Democracy

Observers agree that todays election represents a significant test for both INEC and its new chairman, Professor Amupitan. The eyes of Nigerians, and indeed the world, are firmly fixed on INEC at this critical juncture, Ejiofor remarked. The Commission must discharge its constitutional responsibility with integrity, impartiality, and courage.

As Anambra heads to the ballot, all eyes remain on the conduct of the electorate, the professionalism of security agencies, and the impartiality of INEC. The outcome of todays poll will not only determine the states next leader but will also serve as a barometer of Nigeria’s democratic maturity and institutional credibility. For Amupitan, it may well be his acid test.

Predictions and Political Outlook

AljazirahNigerias long-running election prediction model – the Aljazirah Octopus – renowned for its over 90% accuracy forecast a victory for the incumbent, Professor Soludo. Political analysts have echoed similar sentiments, arguing that Soludo remains the most entrenched political figure among the contenders.

Public opinion, however, remains divided. While some voters praise Soludo for his economic reforms and infrastructure projects, others criticise his administration for insecurity and alleged underperformance. Six candidates Soludo, Ukachukwu, Moghalu, Nwosu, Chukwuma, and Nwekeare viewed as the most competitive in todays contest.

International and Domestic Observers Mobilised
The European Union, EU, has deployed 687 observers to monitor the election under the EU Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria, EU-SDGN, programme. Seven of its implementing partners The Kukah Centre, Yiaga Africa, International Press Centre, IPC, Centre for Media and Society, CEMESO, Nigeria Women Trust Fund, NWTF, ElectHER, and TAF Africa are already operating from a Unified Election Observation Hub in Anambra.

In a statement, the EU cohort explained: The key feature of this unified deployment is to obtain a broad view of the election by utilising the diverse expertise of the EU-SDGN partners, analysing findings, and compiling them into a comprehensive public report.

Yiaga Africa, however, has urged INEC to tighten oversight of election logistics, stressing the need for strict supervision of transport companies handling the movement of materials and personnel.

These recommendations, jointly signed by Dr Asmau Maikudi (Chair, 2025 Anambra Election Mission) and Samson Itodo (Executive Director, Yiaga Africa), were addressed to INEC, security agencies, political parties, civil society organisations, and the media.

A coalition of accredited election observers has lauded INEC’s level of preparation ahead of the polls. Speaking in Awka, the groups coordinator, Mr Augustine Okafor of the Grassroots Development Centre for Peace and Social Justice, said over 350 observers had been deployed statewide.

According to him, the transparent distribution of non-sensitive materials reflects INECs commitment to conducting a free, fair and credible election. Okafor also praised security agencies and the state government for restoring calm in areas previously affected by criminal activity.

The coalition further called on the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to apprehend anyone found engaging in vote buying during the exercise.

Public Sentiment and Calls for Neutrality
Residents across the state have voiced cautious optimism for a peaceful, credible election.

Speaking to the News Agency of Nigeria, NAN, citizens in Onitsha urged the new INEC Chairman, Professor Amupitan, to deliver an election that will stand the test of time.

Human rights activist Mr Vincent Ezekwueme praised the deployment of DIG Okolo, describing it as a reassuring measure by the Inspector-General of Police, Kayode Egbetokun. He expressed confidence that the poll would be peaceful, noting that extensive voter sensitisation had been carried out to discourage electoral malpractice, including ballot box snatching.

We have educated our people not to allow themselves to be used as political thugs, he said. If security operatives act with genuine intent, a free and credible election will follow. This is also an opportunity for the new INEC chairman to demonstrate his capability and integrity.

Ezekwueme also cautioned political actors against importing thugs into areas where they have little support, describing such tactics as potential triggers for unrest.

Voices from the Streets

Ordinary residents expressed readiness to vote. Mrs Agnes Okafor, a restaurant owner in Awka, said she expected a calm process. All the political actors have maintained peace throughout their campaigns. I will cast my vote and then go back to prepare food for my customers, she said cheerfully.
Similarly, Mr Samuel Okeke, a tricycle operator, observed that Anambra had enjoyed relative peace in recent months and anticipated a free, fair and credible election.

Human rights lawyer, Mr Ifeanyi Ejiofor, has appealed to voters not to sell their votes. In a statement issued in Onitsha, he described the election as a defining moment for the states destiny.

He said: Let no one succumb to intimidation or inducement of any kind. A vote is not a commodity; it is a sacred trust. To sell your vote is to auction your conscience and mortgage the future of your children for fleeting gratification.

Ejiofor urged all eligible voters to participate freely, fearlessly and conscientiously, emphasising that Saturdays election is an opportunity for the people to speak decisively about the kind of leadership they desire.

He also expressed confidence in the security arrangements and called on citizens to cooperate fully with law enforcement personnel. Security agencies have pledged maximum protection for voters. We must all do our part to maintain peace and uphold the integrity of the process, he added.