At least 2,700 people are estimated to have died in England and Wales as a result of the intense heatwaves that swept across the United Kingdom in May and June, according to a new scientific study released on Monday.
The research was conducted by experts from Imperial College London, the UK Met Office and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who analysed weather observations, climate models and previous studies on excess deaths linked to extreme temperatures.
According to the findings, the UK experienced two unusually severe heatwaves during the period, with record-breaking temperatures recorded across several parts of England.
The first heatwave, which occurred in May, saw temperatures rise to 35.1 degrees Celsius, while a second heatwave in June pushed temperatures as high as 37.7 degrees Celsius, making them some of the hottest conditions ever recorded during those months.
Researchers described the events as exceptional, particularly because they occurred much earlier in the year than is typically expected.
“They were extreme heatwaves for the UK, and for all parts of western Europe, and they’re particularly exceptional for the timing and how early in the year they occurred,” said Mark McCarthy, Science Manager of the Met Office’s Climate Attribution Team.
The study estimated that approximately 550 people died due to heat-related causes between May 21 and May 29.
It further estimated that nearly 2,200 additional deaths occurred between June 18 and June 28, bringing the total estimated death toll for both heatwaves to around 2,700 people in England and Wales.
The researchers noted that the estimates were derived from statistical modelling and would be compared with official mortality figures expected to be released by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) in the coming weeks.
The UKHSA is expected to publish its official assessment after analysing certified death records associated with the recent heatwaves.
Commenting on the findings, the Head of the UKHSA’s Centre for Climate and Health Security, Lea Berrang Ford, said the modelling provides important insight into the growing health risks posed by extreme temperatures.
The models in the study released Monday “help illustrate the scale of risk associated with extreme heat and the growing threat climate change poses to our wellbeing,” she said.
The study also highlighted the growing influence of climate change in intensifying heatwaves across the United Kingdom and Europe.
According to the researchers, human-induced global warming increased daytime maximum temperatures during the recent heatwaves by between three and four degrees Celsius.
Scientists warned that rising global temperatures are making heatwaves both more frequent and more severe, increasing the risk of illness and death, particularly among elderly people, children and individuals with underlying medical conditions.
Last year, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), the independent body responsible for advising the British government on climate policy, warned that the country was inadequately prepared to cope with worsening climate impacts.
In a report published in May, the committee projected that by 2050, as many as 92 per cent of homes across Britain could become dangerously hot if adaptation measures are not implemented.
The committee also recommended that the government establish maximum workplace temperature limits and increase investment in cooling systems for public facilities such as hospitals, schools and other essential infrastructure.
Climate experts continue to urge governments to strengthen adaptation strategies while accelerating efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to limit the long-term impacts of global warming.
