By Samuel Ikani; Managing Partner and CEO, Insights &Strategy Consulting Limited
When the Africa Polling Institute unveiled the 2026 Nigeria Social Cohesion Survey in Abuja on 25 June 2026, one result immediately stood out. Nigeria’s Social Cohesion Index (NSCI) has risen to 48.8 per cent, the highest score recorded since the survey began in 2019.
At first glance, this appears to be encouraging news. A closer reading of the report, however, tells a more sobering story. While the country has recorded its strongest performance to date, it still remains below the 50 per cent threshold that represents a socially cohesive nation. After seven years of measurement, Nigeria continues to operate below the point where national unity can be considered stable.
For policymakers, this distinction matters. Improvement should not be mistaken for transformation. The latest figures suggest that while Nigerians continue to demonstrate remarkable resilience, the institutions responsible for governing them are yet to build the level of confidence required to sustain long-term national cohesion.
The report also reveals an important trend. The Social Cohesion Index declined sharply from 44.2 per cent in 2021 to 39.6 per cent in 2022, reflecting one of the most politically divisive periods in Nigeria’s recent history. Since then, the index has steadily recovered, reaching 46.8 per cent in 2025 before climbing to 48.8 per cent this year.
Ordinarily, such a recovery would suggest that citizens increasingly perceive the country as becoming more united. Yet another finding in the report presents a striking contradiction; Nearly 48 per cent of Nigerians now believe the country is more divided than it was four years ago, compared with 31 per cent in 2025. The coexistence of these two findings is perhaps the most significant policy insight contained in the report.
The explanation appears to be that cohesion is growing primarily among citizens themselves, while confidence in the political and governance environment continues to weaken. Communities are finding ways to cooperate, support one another and maintain relationships despite increasing political tensions. At the same time, many Nigerians believe the country’s political environment is becoming increasingly polarised.
The report identifies the principal driver of this division. Party political affiliation, cited by 56 per cent of respondents, has overtaken both ethnicity (46 per cent) and religion (44 per cent) as the leading source of conflict within communities.
This finding deserves serious attention. For decades, discussions around national unity have focused largely on ethnic and religious divisions. The evidence now suggests that political competition itself has become the strongest force fragmenting social relationships. This represents an important shift in Nigeria’s conflict dynamics and should prompt a reassessment of how political engagement is conducted.
One of the most encouraging findings in this year’s survey is the emergence of a stronger national identity. For the first time since the study began, a majority of respondents identify themselves primarily as Nigerians rather than by ethnic, religious or regional affiliation.
This represents a significant national asset. Shared national identity is one of the strongest foundations upon which peaceful societies are built. It strengthens trust between communities, encourages cooperation and creates a common basis for addressing national challenges.
Yet this optimism is tempered by another statistic. Fifty-five per cent of Nigerians say they would relocate abroad immediately if given the opportunity. This illustrates the complexity of the country’s current reality. Citizens may increasingly identify with Nigeria, yet many remain uncertain about its future. Patriotism alone cannot compensate for declining economic opportunity, weak public services or diminishing confidence in governance. National identity can inspire hope, but only effective institutions can sustain it.
Perhaps the most consequential findings in the report relate to institutional trust. Nigerians continue to place relatively high levels of confidence in religious leaders (51 per cent) and traditional rulers (45 per cent). Confidence in public institutions, however, remains significantly lower.
Only 28 per cent of respondent’s express trust in the current administration, while the National Assembly records the lowest trust rating at 23 per cent, making it the least trusted public institution in the country.
This should concern every policymaker, researcher or development specialist.
Social cohesion depends not only on relationships between citizens but also on the quality of the relationship between citizens and the institutions established to serve them. A society where people trust one another but have little confidence in public institutions faces an enduring governance deficit. While citizens may continue to demonstrate resilience, that resilience should not be mistaken for institutional effectiveness.
There is one encouraging development. Public distrust in the executives has declined from 83 per cent to 72 per cent over the past year. Although modest, this suggests that confidence can be rebuilt where deliberate efforts are made. The challenge is to ensure that this progress extends across all public institutions rather than remaining isolated.
The broader lesson from the report is that Nigeria’s improving cohesion should not be interpreted as evidence that all is well. Rather, it reflects the extraordinary capacity of Nigerians to maintain relationships, adapt to hardship and preserve social order despite persistent economic and political pressures.
Resilience is a national strength, but it is not a substitute for good governance.
There is an important difference between citizens becoming more united because public institutions are performing effectively and citizens becoming more united because they are collectively enduring hardship. The former represents sustainable development. The latter represents survival.
This distinction should guide how government interprets these findings. The policy implications are therefore clear.
The proposal contained in the report to establish a National Social Cohesion Commission, similar to Kenya’s National Cohesion and Integration Commission, deserves serious consideration. Equally important is the recommendation to institutionalise social cohesion across Ministries, Departments and Agencies so that policy formulation routinely considers its impact on trust, inclusion and national unity.
Beyond institutional reforms, however, Nigeria must confront the growing role of partisan politics in deepening social divisions. If political affiliation has become the country’s leading source of conflict, then reducing political polarisation is no longer simply an electoral concern. It is a national development priority and a matter of long-term national stability.
The emergence of a stronger Nigerian identity is perhaps the most valuable finding in this year’s report. It is evidence that citizens are increasingly choosing common nationhood over narrower identities. That progress should be protected, strengthened and matched by institutions that inspire the same confidence citizens increasingly place in one another.
Ultimately, the figure to watch is not 48.8 per cent. It is 50 per cent. Crossing that threshold will matter only if it reflects a country where stronger institutions, responsive leadership and effective governance have reinforced the resilience already demonstrated by its people; not simply another year in which Nigerians held the country together despite the system rather than because of it.
