Cyril Ogar
Nigeria’s economy recorded a real Gross Domestic Product ,GDP, growth of 3.89% year-on-year in real terms in the first quarter of 2026, marking an improvement over the 3.13% recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.
This growth indicates sustained economic expansion compared to the 3.13% growth recorded in Q1 2025, though it shows a slight moderation from the 4.07% growth observed in Q4 2025.
This is according to latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, indicate a broad-based but uneven recovery across key sectors of the economy, with agriculture emerging as the most improved performer during the period under review.
According to the data, the agricultural sector grew by 3.15% in Q1 2026, a significant rebound from the marginal 0.07% growth recorded in Q1 2025.
The latest figures indicate continued expansion across major sectors of the economy, supported by stronger agricultural activity, steady industrial output and sustained growth in the services sector.
In nominal terms, aggregate GDP at basic prices rose to N110.79 trillion in Q1 2026 from N94.05 trillion in Q1 2025, representing a nominal year-on-year growth of 17.79%
The economy remained broadly driven by non-oil activities, although the oil sector also posted moderate growth despite lower production volumes during the quarter.
The latest GDP report showed that the non-oil sector remained the dominant driver of economic growth, while agriculture recorded a significant rebound.
The non-oil sector grew by 3.94% in real terms and accounted for 96.08% of total real GDP.
The services sector remained the largest contributor to output, accounting for 57.73% of GDP and growing by 4.31% year-on-year.
Agriculture recorded strong recovery with real growth of 3.15%, compared to just 0.07% in the corresponding period of 2025.
The report showed that key growth drivers included telecommunications, crop production, trade, cement manufacturing, financial services, construction, transportation and real estate activities.
The oil sector posted moderate growth despite lower crude oil production during the quarter.
Average crude oil production declined to 1.55 million barrels per day in Q1 2026 from 1.62 million barrels per day recorded in Q1 2025.
Despite lower output, the oil sector grew by 2.57% in real terms, higher than the 1.87% growth recorded in Q1 2025.
The oil sector contributed 3.92% to total real GDP, slightly below 3.97% recorded a year earlier.
Construction grew strongly by 6.38% in real terms, while manufacturing posted nominal growth of 10.22%.
The industrial sector maintained stable performance overall, growing by 3.50% in Q1 2026 compared to 3.42% recorded in the same period of 2025.
Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.07% year-on-year in real terms in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025.
Global institutions have expressed cautious optimism about Nigeria’s growth trajectory earlier in the year.
The World Bank has maintained its 4.4% growth forecast for Nigeria in 2027.
The World Bank upgraded Nigeria’s 2026 growth estimate to 4.4% from 3.7% projected in June 2025.
S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign and local currency credit ratings to ‘B’ from ‘B-’.
The global ratings agency also affirmed Nigeria’s short-term sovereign ratings at ‘B’, while raising the country’s national scale ratings to ‘ngA+/ngA-1’ from ‘ngBBB+/ngA-2’, with a stable outlook.
