By Charles Ebi
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate moderated slightly to 15.10% in January 2026, down from 15.15% recorded in December 2025, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report released by the National Bureau of Statistics ,NBS.
The marginal decline of 0.05 percentage points suggests a continued slowdown in price pressures at the start of the year, following several months of easing inflation.
On a year-on-year basis, inflation dropped significantly compared to the same period last year. The January 2026 rate of 15.10% is 12.51 percentage points lower than the 27.61% recorded in January 2025.
The report also showed a contraction in prices compared to the previous month. Inflation stood at –2.88% month on month in January 2026, compared to 0.54% in December 2025, representing a drop of 3.42 percentage points.
According to the NBS, this indicates that the general price level declined in January, meaning the average cost of goods and services fell relative to December.
Despite the recent easing, the broader inflation trend remains elevated. The percentage change in the average Consumer Price Index for the twelve months ending January 2026 was 21.97%, compared to the previous twelve-month period.
This represents a 4.37 percentage point increase from the 17.59% recorded in January 2025, showing that underlying price pressures over the past year remain significant.
Food inflation, the largest component of household spending, fell sharply in January, providing the biggest relief to consumers.
On a year-on-year basis, food inflation stood at 8.89%, a steep drop of 20.73 percentage points from 29.63% recorded in January 2025.
Month on month, food prices declined further to –6.02%, compared to –0.36% in December 2025, representing a decrease of 5.66 percentage points.
The NBS attributed the decline to falling average prices of staple items, including water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize grains, guinea corn, beans, beef, melon (egusi), cassava tubers, and cowpeas.
The twelve-month average food inflation rate for the period ending January 2026 was 20.29%, significantly lower than the 38.47% recorded in January 2025, indicating sustained easing in food price pressures over the past year.
Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, stood at 17.72% year on year in January 2026, down by 7.55 percentage points from 25.27% recorded in January 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, core inflation declined to –1.69%, compared to 0.58% in December 2025, showing slower price increases in non-food items.
The twelve-month average core inflation rate was 22.84%, representing a 4.40 percentage point decline from 27.24% recorded in January 2025.
In urban areas, inflation stood at 15.36% year on year in January 2026, a sharp decline of 14.09 percentage points from 29.45% recorded in January 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation fell to –2.72%, down by 3.71 percentage points from 0.99% in December 2025, indicating falling prices in cities during the month.
However, the twelve-month average urban inflation rate remained high at 22.30% in January 2026, which is 3.42 percentage points higher than the 18.88% recorded in January 2025.
Rural inflation followed a similar downward trend. On a year-on-year basis, rural inflation stood at 14.44% in January 2026, down by 10.60 percentage points from 25.04% recorded in January 2025.
Month on month, rural inflation dropped further to –3.29%, compared to –0.55% in December 2025, showing deeper price declines in rural areas.
The twelve-month average rural inflation rate was 21.03%, significantly lower than the 30.79% recorded in January 2025, reflecting easing price pressures over the past year in rural communities.
January inflation figures defied analysts’ projections. analysts had projected January inflation to be broadly flat or edge slightly higher than December.
Their projections placed the headline figure within the 15.15%–16.25% range, reflecting a delicate balance between post-holiday easing in staple food prices and persistent pressures from fuel costs, seasonal supply adjustments, and import-linked goods.
The analysts noted that January’s outcome would provide an important early signal for first-quarter monetary policy decisions, even as evolving liquidity conditions and supply-side dynamics continue to shape the inflation trajectory.
In a same vein, Nigeria’s food inflation rate eased to 8.89% year-on-year in January 2026, marking its first single-digit reading in 128 months and the lowest level in 174 months, according to the latest Consumer Price Index ,CPI, report released by the National Bureau of Statistics ,NBS.
The January 2026 CPI report shows food inflation declined from 29.63% recorded in January 2025 to 8.89% in January 2026, a sharp 20.73 percentage point year-on-year drop.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation contracted by 6.02% in January, compared with a 0.36% decline in December 2025.
An analysis from figures obtained, showed that the 8.89% reading is the first time food inflation has fallen below 10% since May 2015, when it stood at 9.78%.
From June 2015, when the rate rose to 10.04%, food inflation remained in double digits for 128 consecutive months until December 2025.
January 2026, therefore, ends a stretch of more than 10 years of persistent double-digit food inflation.
More significantly, the January figure is the lowest since August 2011, when food inflation was 8.66%.
The span between August 2011 and January 2026 covers 174 months, equivalent to 14 years and six months. In effect, Nigeria has not recorded food inflation this low in over 14 years.
The NBS attributed the slowdown to declines in the average prices of water yam, eggs, green peas, groundnut oil, soya beans, palm oil, maize, guinea corn, beans, beef, egusi and cassava tuber.
On a twelve-month average basis, food inflation stood at 20.29% in January 2026, significantly lower than the 38.47% recorded in January 2025.
According to the latest CPI report by the NBS, “The Food inflation rate in January 2026 was 8.89% on a year-on-year basis. This was 20.73% points lower compared to the rate recorded in January 2025 (29.63%).
“On a month-on-month basis, the Food inflation rate in January 2026 was -6.02%, down by 5.66% compared to December 2025 (-0.36%). The decrease can be attributed to the rate of decrease in the average prices of Water Yam, Eggs, Green Peas, Groundnut Oil, Soya Beans, Palm Oil, Maize (Corn) Grains, Guinea Corn, Beans, Beef Meat, Melon (Egusi) Unshelled, Cassava Tuber, Cow Peas (White), etc.
“The average annual rate of Food inflation for the twelve months ending January 2026 over the previous twelve-month average was 20.29%, which was 18.18% points lower compared with the average annual rate of change recorded in January 2025 ,38.47%”.
While this confirms a strong deinflation trend, it also shows that the broader price level over the past year still reflects earlier spikes.
The latest moderation follows an intense inflation cycle between 2022 and 2024. Food inflation rose from 23.75% in December 2022 to 33.93% in December 2023, before climbing further to a peak of 40.87% in June 2024.
By January 2025, food inflation remained elevated at 29.63%. However, through 2025, the rate gradually eased.
It fell to 25.22% in March, 24.55% in May, 20.16% in September, 16.30% in October, 14.21% in November and 10.84% in December 2025 before entering single digits in January 2026.
The 8.89% print represents a decline of nearly 32 percentage points from the June 2024 peak, underscoring the scale of the reversal.
Headline inflation also eased marginally to 15.10% in January 2026 from 15.15% in December 2025. On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation was 12.51 percentage points lower than the 27.61% recorded in January 2025. Month-on-month, headline inflation printed at -2.88%, compared to 0.54% in December 2025.
Food remains the largest contributor to headline inflation, accounting for 6.04 percentage points of the 15.10% rate, meaning the sharp deceleration in food prices has been central to the broader easing trend.
Despite the national slowdown, state-level data show wide variations. On a year-on-year basis in January 2026, Kogi recorded the highest food inflation at 19.84%, followed by Benue at 18.38% and Adamawa at 17.29%.
Ebonyi recorded the slowest rise at 1.69%, while Abia and Imo posted 3.23% and 3.74% respectively.
Month-on-month, several states recorded sharp price declines, including Yobe at -11.88%, Nasarawa at -9.06% and Sokoto at -8.31%.
January 2026, therefore, marks a structural turning point.
After 128 straight months in double digits and following a peak of 40.87% less than two years ago, food inflation has returned to single digits for the first time in over a decade and to its lowest level in more than 14 years.
