… Trade surplus hits $17.22bn, signals economic resurgence

… Petroleum imports fall by 23.2% to $14.06bn, non-oil imports drop 12.6%

By Charles Ebi 

Central Bank of Nigeria ,CBN, has announced a Balance of Payments ,BOP, surplus of $6.83bn for the 2024 financial year, marking a decisive turnaround from deficits of $3.34bn in 2023 and $3.32bn in 2022.

This improvement reflects the impact of wide-ranging macroeconomic reforms, stronger trade performance, and renewed investor confidence in Nigeria’s economy.

The apex bank stated that the current and capital account recorded a surplus of $17.22bn in 2024, underpinned by a goods trade surplus of $13.17bn.

The CBN stated that petroleum imports declined by 23.2% to $14.06bn, while non-oil imports fell by 12.6% to $25.74bn.

On the export side, gas exports rose by 48.3% to $8.66bn, and non-oil exports increased by 24.6% to $7.46bn.

Remittance inflows remained resilient, with personal remittances rising by 8.9% to $20.93bn.

International Money Transfer Operator ,IMTO, inflows surged by 43.5% to $4.73bn, up from $3.30bn in 2023, reflecting stronger engagement from the Nigerians in diaspora.

The CBN stated that official development assistance also rose by 6.2% to $3.37bn, with improved financial account and reserve position which enabled Nigeria to record a net acquisition of financial assets totalling $12.12bn.

Portfolio investment inflows more than doubled, increasing by 106.5% to $13.35bn, while resident foreign currency holdings grew by $5.41bn, indicating stronger confidence in domestic economic stability.

Although foreign direct investment fell by 42.3% to $1.08bn, the overall financial account posted notable gains.

The country’s external reserves increased by $6.0bn to $40.19bn by year-end 2024, bolstering its external buffer.

The apex bank noted further that there was marked improvement in data integrit as net errors and omissions narrowed significantly by 79.5% to negative $5.10bn in 2024, down from $24.9bn in 2023, reflecting substantial improvements in data availability and capture.

This, it added, represents a major advance in data accuracy, transparency, and overall reporting integrity.

“The 2024 BOP surplus highlights the effectiveness of Nigeria’s ongoing reform agenda.

“The liberalisation and unification of the foreign exchange market, a disciplined monetary policy approach to managing inflation and stabilising the naira, and coordinated fiscal and monetary measures have all contributed to enhanced competitiveness and investor sentiment.

“The positive turnaround in our external finances is evidence of effective policy implementation and our unwavering commitment to macroeconomic stability”,said the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria.

“This surplus marks an important step forward for Nigeria’s economy, benefiting investors, businesses, and everyday Nigerians alike”, the CBN stated.

In the financial account, Nigeria recorded a net acquisition of financial assets totaling $12.12 billion, marking a recovery in capital inflows and market confidence. Portfolio investments more than doubled, increasing by 106.5% to $13.35 billion, while resident foreign currency holdings rose by $5.41 billion—an indicator of growing trust in the stability of Nigeria’s financial system.

Although foreign direct investment ,FDI, fell by 42.3% to $1.08 billion, the overall financial account posted substantial gains, largely supported by favorable portfolio flows and asset accumulation.

Nigeria’s external reserves increased by $6.0 billion, closing the year at $40.19 billion, enhancing the country’s external buffer and providing greater capacity for exchange rate defense and economic resilience.

Significantly, net errors and omissions fell by 79.5% to negative $5.10 billion, from a high of $24.90 billion in 2023. This sharp decline points to improved data integrity, better reporting mechanisms, and enhanced transparency in external account monitoring, the apex bank stated.

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Olayemi Cardoso was quoted to have said the positive turnaround in the country’s external finances is evidence of effective policy implementation and the bank’s unwavering commitment to macroeconomic stability.

…As crude prices plunge to four-year lows amid U.S.-China tariff war  

By Charles Ebi 

Federal Government has maintained its commitment to the Crude and Refined Product Sales in Naira initiative, describing it as important to alleviating the country’s foreign exchange ,forex, pressures and ensuring long-term energy security.

This reaffirmation came during a high-level update meeting of the Technical Sub-Committee on the Crude and Refined Product Sales in Naira held on Tuesday.

The session was convened to assess progress and address ongoing implementation challenges associated with the strategic policy.

The meeting was chaired by Mr. Wale Edun, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, who also serves a  Chairman of the overarching Implementation Committee. He was joined by Mr. Zacch Adedeji, the Executive Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service ,FIRS, and Chairman of the Technical Sub-Committee.

Also in attendance were senior officials from across the oil and gas value chain, including the Chief Financial Officer of NNPC Limited, Mr. Dapo Segun, representatives from NNPC Refineries and NNPC Trading, Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals, as well as key regulatory stakeholders such as the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission ,NUPRC, Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority ,NMDPRA, the Central Bank of Nigeria ,CBN, Nigerian Ports Authority ,NPA, and a representative of Afreximbank. The meeting was coordinated by the Committee’s Secretary, Hauwa Ibrahim.

The initiative, according to a statement posted on X (formerly Twitter) by the Federal Ministry of Finance yesterday, is not a temporary or stop-gap measure but a long-term policy direction approved by the Federal Executive Council ,FEC.

The government sees the initiative as a critical pillar in its economic transformation agenda, particularly in light of its commitment to reducing Nigeria’s exposure to global oil price volatility and stabilizing the naira.

While acknowledging that no major policy reform is without its teething problems, the Committee emphasized that challenges currently facing the program are being systematically addressed through inter-agency collaboration and stakeholder engagement.

Issues raised at the meeting included logistics and infrastructure bottlenecks, coordination between upstream producers and downstream offtakers, pricing templates, and compliance by key market operators. These, the Committee said, are already being handled through “coordinated efforts among all parties”.

The government emphasised that the initiative will remain in force as long as it aligns with national interest and economic objectives, further noting that the program will evolve in response to market realities and regulatory feedback.

In March 2025, Nairametrics reported that the Naira-for-crude initiative of the federal government had ended.

A statement issued following this development by the NNPCL’s Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Olufemi Soneye, confirmed that the pilot phase of the arrangement was made for six months.

meanwhile,  Global oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday, hitting their lowest levels since February 2021, as escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies, dampened demand expectations.

Rising supply levels added further pressure on the market, triggering fresh concerns about a potential global oil glut.

According to Reuters, as of 4:23 a.m. GMT, Brent crude futures declined by $2.38 ,3.79%, to $60.44 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate ,WTI, crude futures dropped $2.46 ,4.13%, to $57.12.

Both benchmarks have now fallen for five consecutive trading sessions.

The Brent six-month spread also narrowed sharply to just $0.79, its lowest since mid-November 2024, a steep fall from the $5.69 peak recorded in January, signaling that the market is increasingly pricing in a surplus.

The bearish momentum followed the implementation of President Donald Trump’s 104% tariffs on Chinese imports, which took effect from 12:01 a.m. ET yesterday.

The tariffs, which add an extra 50% penalty after China failed to roll back its own retaliatory measures, have escalated fears of a prolonged trade war that could stunt global economic growth and reduce fuel demand.

In response, China denounced the move as economic “blackmail” and promised further retaliatory measures, complicating any hopes for a swift resolution.

Analysts now warn that Chinese oil demand growth previously expected to contribute an additional 50,000 to 100,000 barrels per day ,bpd, could be significantly curtailed if hostilities persist.

“China’s aggressive retaliation diminishes the chances of a quick deal between the world’s two biggest economies, triggering mounting fears of economic recession across the globe”, said Ye Lin, Vice President of Oil Commodity Markets at Rystad Energy.

Adding to the market’s woes, OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia, agreed last week to increase production by 411,000 bpd in May, a move widely seen as contributing to potential oversupply.

In its latest outlook, Goldman Sachs projects that Brent could dip to $62 by the end of 2025 and $55 by the end of 2026, with WTI following a similar trajectory.

The recent plunge in oil prices presents a major risk for Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy. With crude oil contributing about 80% of government revenues and 95% of foreign exchange earnings, prolonged price weakness could exacerbate fiscal pressures and threaten macroeconomic stability.

At current prices, Nigeria’s 2025 budget benchmark oil price of $75 per barrel is significantly above Brent’s current level of around $60.

A sustained shortfall could lead to wider budget deficits, increased borrowing, and further strain on the foreign exchange market.

Moreover, the narrow Brent spread and surplus outlook may discourage fresh investment in Nigeria’s upstream sector, particularly in deepwater projects with higher breakeven costs.

However, a silver lining may be found in U.S. crude inventory data released by the American Petroleum Institute, which showed an unexpected drawdown of 1.1 million barrels  indicating some level of ongoing demand resilience.