Octopus Predicts Buhari’s Successor
By Deborah Musa Abuja, Abubakar Ibrahim Kano, Emeka Orji Abia
As Nigerians prepare to elect a new leader Aljazirah Octopus has predicted that in a case of high turnout of voters, the All Progressives Congress, APC, presidential candidate, Senator Ahmed Tinubu may emerge winner, while the Labour Party, LP, Presidential standard bearer Mr Peter Obi is likely to trail behind the APC candidate.
There are 18 presidential candidates in the race, however, four of the candidates seeking to occupy the number one position in the country seem to have gained more popularity among Nigerians.
Apart from Tinubu and Obi, former vice president Abubakar Atiku, the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, presidential candidate as well as erstwhile governor of Kano State, Engr Musa Kwankwaso, on the platform of New Nigerian Peoples Party, NNPP, are other front runners for Saturday’s presidential election.
It would be recalled that the quartet are not light weight politicians, besides Atiku and Obi paired up as presidential candidate and running mate respectively.
Although other presidential candidates will definitely flex their political muscles, it is clear to keen observers that it is going to be battle royale for the aforementioned contesters.
Interestingly, they all have a national appeal among voters. This unique selling point by the four top runners will come to play on D-Day.
However, the ratings place Atiku behind Obi, many believe that he may at the eleventh hour leap to victory given his structures across the country, just as Obi a candidate who is fast moving with the prevailing wind of Obidient Movement.
Kwankwaso, an old political war horse also has a very high propensity to coast to victory given the penetration of the NNPP nationwide, especially in Kano a state that is noted for swing votes.
Judging from Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC, figures the North-west has 22,255,562 million registered voters, the highest in the country. This many believe is a great strength for any candidate who can command large followership.
The North-east is also not doing badly with its 12,542,429 million registered voters. The region is envisaged to be a battle ground for Tinubu and Atiku as the APC’s Vice-Presidential candidate Senator Kashim Shettima and the PDP candidate both hail from the region which in the past gave block votes from Borno and Yobe.
North West (Jigawa)
State by state breakdown of party’s chances show in APC 46.9%, PDP 35.2%, NNPP 10.5%, LP 4.5% and undecided 2.9%.
Kano
APC 40.9%, NNPP 36.5%, PDP 20.4% and LP 3.1%.
Katsina
PDP 39.5%, APC 15.0%, LP 26.0%, NNPP 10.9% and undecided 8.9%.
Kaduna
APC 49.3%, PDP 30.5%, NNPP 15.5%, LP 4.5%.
Kebbi
PDP 45.9%, APC 25.5%, NNPP 15.8%, LP 9.5% and undecided 3.3%.
Zamfara
APC 52.5%, PDP 32.9%, NNPP 10.5%, LP 3.5% and undecided 0.6%.
Sokoto
PDP 45%, APC 41%, NNPP 8%, LP 4% and undecided 2%.
North East
Adamawa: PDP 48%, APC 36%, LP 10%, NNPP 5% and undecided 2%.
Bauchi: PDP 55.0%, APC 35.0%, NNPP 6.0%, LP 4.0%.
Borno: APC 62%, PDP 33%, NNPP 3%, LP 2%.
Gombe: APC 40%, PDP 30%, NNPP 18%, LP 6% and undecided 5.9%.
Taraba: LP 38%, PDP 37%, APC 20%, NNPP 5%.
Yobe: APC 47%, PDP 31%, NNPP 17.5%, LP 1% and undecided 2.7%.
North Central
In North Central region with a total of 15,363,731 registered voters, according to INEC data, the APC is predicted to clinch four out of the six states of the zone and the FCT, leaving the Labour Party with two states of Plateau, Benue and the FCT while the main opposition PDP has no state in the zone.
The ruling party is projected to emerge winner in Kogi State with 42.2%, Niger with 49.5%, Kwara with 34.5%, Nasarawa with 35.4% of the total votes cast.
Kogi has a total of 1,932,694 with uncollected voter cards of 118,945, representing 6.2 percent of the total number; Niger has 2,698,344 registered voters and 64,616 uncollected PVCs, representing 2.4% of registered voters; Nasarawa – 1,899,244 registered voters and 51,495 uncollected PVCs, representing 2.7% of total number.
For the remaining state of Plateau with 2,789,528 registered voters and 101,995 uncollected PVCs representing 17%of total registered voters, the Labour Party is predicted to emerge victorious with 40.5 percent; 40.2% victorious in Benue with 2,777,727 total registered voters and 17,566 uncollected PVCs, representing 6.1% of the number, and 60% winner in FCT with 1,570,307 total registered voters and 93,868 uncollected PVCs, represent 6.0% of the total number registered.
SOUTH WEST
For the South-West with 17,958,966 total registered voters, APC is projected to emerge winner in Oyo with 35.6% of the total votes cast, 35.2% in Ekiti, 32.5% in Ogun, 45.2% in Lagos, and 37.6% in Osun, leaving the PDP at 28.5%, 32.1%, 24.6%, 30.1%, 16.2%and 32.5% in the respective states.
For the six states in the zone, the Labour Party is predicted to come third with 17.5%, 21.0%, 15.9%, 25.6%, 31.0%, and 15.1% in Oyo, Ekiti, Ondo, Ogun, Lagos and Osun, respectively.
SOUTH EAST
AljazirahNigeria Octopus spread its tentacles to the old Eastern region of South East and South-South zones, predictions of possible outcome in the Presidential election were thorough, the respondents were randomly selected to include all the categories of voting populations so as to arrive at a near-possible result if not the result itself.
In the South East geopolitical zone, the Octopus polls prediction gave the Labour Party to emerge victorious with more than the average percentage results. The polls gave Imo State 61% votes to the Labour Party and the PDP 23%, followed by the APC 6.1%. Anambra the home state of the Labour Party presidential candidate is expected to be the way of the party with 70.1% all things being equal, tailed by the PDP21% and the APC 6% . Of course, everyone expected the Labour party to do very well in Anambra State. Also in Abia, Enugu and Ebony the LP by this polls is coasting to victory with percentage margins of 62% in Abia, 69.2% in Enugu and 58.9% in Ebonyi State. The avers that the PDP would come second position in the South East zone with 21% in Anambra, 21.2% in Abia,29.5% in Enugu and 31.2% in Ebony. This shows that the PDP might have its required 25% in Ebonyi State But the chart left the APC trailing behind the PDP with 12.7% in Imo, 6.1% in Anambra , 16.3% in Abia, 3.3% in Enugu and 9.9% in Abia. The NNPP according to the polls doesn’t stand a chance in the South East. Though, there are undecided voters of 4.9% in the zone.
South-South
Also in the South-South geopolitical zone, the Octopus didn’t see the APC making an impact except for Rivers State predicted for 40% votes and other states in the zone were below 25%. States like AKwa Ibom 23%, Cross Rivers 17%, Edo 9.5%, Delta 5.1% and Bayelsa 15.6%. The Labour Party would do well in Cross River with 55.6%, Edo 60.1% therefore was predicted to win Edo and Cross River in the zone. The PDP going by polls would win Akwa Ibom, Delta and Bayelsa with 40%, 65.5% and 60.5% respectively. The NNPP would not pull a string as it might take the back seat. The polls predicted 2% in Akwa Ibom, 3.5% in Cross River, 6.5% in Edo, 1.8% in Delta and 2.4% in Bayelsa. In the South South zone the NNPP may not grab 25% as required by law.
Barring last minute changes of decisions, making choices, owing to political alignments, permutation, influences and by this randomly selected respondents spanning from all the categories of voters, the All Progressives Congress will do very well that may translate to the overall victory in the upcoming presidential election.
