Manchester United and Tottenham both took huge strides towards reaching the Europa League final with semi-final first-leg wins on Thursday.
United won 3-0 at Athletic Bilbao, who incidentally host the final on 21 May, while Tottenham saw off Bodo/Glimt 3-1 in London.
Statisticians Opta give United a 97% chance of reaching the final – with 91% for Spurs – meaning an 88% likelihood of both being there.
That would create just a sixth all-English final in any major European competition – with half of them involving Spurs.
It would also mean six English teams in next season’s Champions League.
Are we getting ahead of ourselves?
Opta’s data gives only a 12% chance of it not being an all-English final.
United’s 3-0 win over Athletic, who sit fourth in La Liga, was hugely impressive – and they will hope home advantage next week means they will get over the line.
Spurs may feel like the job is not quite as done.
Norwegian Arctic side Glimt’s win rate at home in the Europa League since 2022-23 is 70%, compared to 9% on the road.
The winners of the Europa League go into the following season’s Champions League, regardless of where they finish domestically.
So a United v Spurs final would guarantee them a return to the mega-riches of European football’s top table.
That rule is handy for United – who sit 14th – and Spurs – who are 16th – both more than 20 points behind fifth place.
Without winning the Europa League, neither of them will be in any European competition next season.
It would not have any knock-on effect on any other English teams – with the top five guaranteed a Champions League spot through the league.
That fifth spot came as a result of English clubs’ performances in Europe this season.
